An analyst says Campbell Newman could be a lame duck premier six months out from the Queensland election.
Queenslanders are facing a re-run of the 2012 election with the question of who will be premier on everyone’s lips, an analyst says.
Premier Campbell Newman had a bounce in support in yesterday’s ReachTEL poll, which showed his primary vote up at 41.1 per cent from 36.6 per cent earlier this month.
But the same poll shows he’s still heading for defeat in his Brisbane seat of Ashgrove and could be a lame duck premier.
The poll showed his likely Labor opponent, former minister Kate Jones, could snatch over half the primary vote in the seat, which she lost to Mr Newman in 2012.
Griffith University analyst Dr Paul Williams predicts Labor will campaign heavily on the uncertainty over the leadership.
“It resonates because people really want to know who the premier’s going to be, they vote on very much on the personality of the premier,” Dr Williams told AAP.
“Labor will talk about the uncertainty of the LNP – `you won’t know who’s going to be premier, but with Labor you know it’s going to be (Annastacia) Palaszczuk’.
“Voters disproportionately focus on personality.”
Meanwhile Liberal National Party (LNP) ministers were lining up behind Mr Newman on Monday, spruiking his “strong track record” and “effectiveness” as a local member.
But Dr Williams says some would surely be counting their numbers.
If Ashgrove voters do toss the premier, he expects a wide field to contest the LNP leadership.
His money is on Treasurer Tim Nicholls or Transport Minister Scott Emerson.
Dr Williams said Mr Emerson is a rising LNP star and a competent, popular minister.
Although Mr Nicholls has better numbers, he’s still unpopular with voters after selling three tough budgets and the government’s asset privatisation program.