It’s the greatest mystery of the 21st Century: what forces of evil are stopping Leonardo DiCaprio from winning an Oscar?
After performing in 37 diverse films over 24 years, from Titanic to Django Unchained to The Wolf of Wall Street and everything in between, many see Leo’s lack of Oscar wins as a borderline disgrace to humankind.
According to new data, however, that’s all about to change!
The esteemed data boffins at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers and the word is out: Leo is predicted to win Best Actor for 2016. Leo lovers, your prayers have finally been answered!
This year, Leo is nominated for his role as Hugh Glass in The Revenant, where he plays an abandoned explorer fighting for survival in the wilderness. Some have argued Leo deserves an Oscar simply for the freezing conditions he was subjected to during filming (just in case his pay cheque wasn’t enough).
Based on data from the lesser awards shows (i.e. The Golden Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs, Critic’s Choice Awards, etc), the sabermetrics-weilding stats geeks at FiveThirtyEight also predict Alicia Vikander will take out Best Supporting Actress for her role in The Danish Girl (narrowly edging out Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs); Brie Larson to be Best Actress for her role in Room; and Alejandro G. Iñárritu to take Best Director for The Revenant, which will also nab Best Picture.
The most hotly contested category is actually Best Supporting Actor, where Sly Stallone of Creed, Mark Rylance of Bridge of Spies and Mark Ruffalo of Spotlight all have a legit chance of walking away with a little gold statue, although the FiveThirtyEight model predicts Stallone will just get there.
FiveThirtyEight‘s predictions were right in five of the six major categories last year (the only one they missed was Iñárritu for Best Director), so if you’re looking to scoop the pool at your Oscars party, you should probably follow their lead pretty closely.